Analysts polled by Reuters expect the National Bank of Hungary’s (NBH) rate-setting Monetary Council to cut the current 1.65% base rate at a policy meeting on Tuesday.
All 20 analysts in a survey between June 12-17 forecast the NBH would lower its base rate by 15 basis points. Most analysts expect the NBH to halt its easing cycle after Tuesday because of uncertainty abroad, but some projected further cuts, taking the base rate as low as 1.2-1.3% by the end of 2015.
“I think they will raise the forecast to 3% for the end of next year and based on this, they could signal a halt,” said János Samu at Concorde. “But if they want to weaken the forint, they will not say anything and keep cutting.”
“The Greek situation and the looming Fed interest rate hike have a limited impact on the forint and the central bank would probably be comfortable with a weaker forint,” said Eszter Gargyán, an economist at Citigroup. The median forecast from survey participants was a 1.5% base rate at the end of the year and a 2% base rate at the end of 2016
